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Illustration for: Qualcomm's phone chip sales fell 26% while autos jumped 89%. Now it's betting $5 billion on data centers

Qualcomm's phone chip sales fell 26% while autos jumped 89%. Now it's betting $5 billion on data centers

Qualcomm's fiscal Q4 revenue fell 8% to $10.32 billion as a memory shortage hit handset demand, but automotive revenue nearly doubled to $1.99 billion. Management now wants $5 billion of data center revenue in fiscal 2027, a business that does not yet appear as a line in its results.

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Qualcomm reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $10.32 billion on November 4, down 8% from $11.27 billion a year earlier, according to its earnings release. Non-GAAP earnings were $2.17 a share, down from $3.00. Phone chip revenue fell 26%. Automotive revenue rose 89%. The company is also making its biggest pitch yet for a new business: data center chips, which it says will bring in $5 billion in fiscal 2027.

Why it matters: Qualcomm is still mostly a smartphone chip company. This quarter shows how fast that is changing, and how much of the case for the stock now depends on a business that has barely started.

The quarter in numbers

All figures are from Qualcomm's release. Year-over-year changes are Qualcomm's.

Line Q4 FY26 Change vs. a year ago Full FY26 Change
Total revenue (GAAP) $10.32B −8% $43.12B −3%
QCT (chips) $9.02B −8% $37.21B −3%
Handsets $5.14B −26% $24.07B −13%
Automotive $1.99B +89% $6.00B +52%
IoT $1.89B +4% $7.13B +8%
QTL (licensing) $1.30B −7% $5.56B flat
Non-GAAP EPS $2.17 vs. $3.00 $10.54 vs. $12.03

GAAP net income was $1.25 billion, compared with a $3.12 billion loss a year earlier. Full-year GAAP earnings of $12.70 a share include a $5.7 billion income tax benefit, worth $5.32 a share, so the non-GAAP figure is the cleaner comparison.

You may see revenue reported as $10.44 billion. MarketBeat and QUE.com, citing Investing.com, used that adjusted number. Grafa used the GAAP $10.32 billion. Either way, analysts expected about $10.1 billion, so Qualcomm came in above estimates. EPS beat the consensus by a cent.

Why phones fell

QUE.com, citing CNBC, says a global memory shortage is pushing up handset prices and cutting demand. Handset chip sales of $5.14 billion missed a StreetAccount estimate of $5.21 billion, even though Qualcomm raised its own prices in September. According to call summaries from MarketBeat and QUE.com, management expects the overall handset market to be flat to down in calendar 2027. For the December quarter, it guided handset revenue down by a mid-single-digit percentage from the prior quarter, partly because its business with Apple continues to wind down.

Autos and IoT now carry the growth

Phones were 57% of chip revenue this quarter, down from about 71% a year ago (our arithmetic from Qualcomm's figures). Automotive and IoT together made up $3.88 billion. According to MarketBeat's call summary, the automotive business left fiscal 2026 at an annualized run rate of about $8 billion. CEO Cristiano Amon said in the release that fiscal 2027 "marks the start of our non-handset revenue inflection."

MarketBeat also reports that Qualcomm expects non-handset chip revenue (automotive, IoT and data center) to grow more than 60% in fiscal 2027 and to exceed half of QCT revenue. Qualcomm's non-handset revenue was about $13.1 billion in fiscal 2026, so growth above 60% would mean more than $21 billion.

The data center bet

The release repeats the $5 billion fiscal 2027 data center target. It does not report data center revenue for the quarter. Handsets, automotive and IoT add up exactly to the $9.02 billion QCT total, so data center revenue does not appear as a separate line yet. Qualcomm's guidance for the December quarter is the first to say QCT "includes Data Center."

According to MarketBeat's summary of the call, Qualcomm expects more than $650 million of data center revenue in the December quarter and aims to exit fiscal 2027 at a $7 billion annual run rate. QUE.com reports Amon said supply, not demand, is the constraint. Management also said custom silicon will dilute gross margin, though it will add to operating profit. Qualcomm also said SpaceX selected it for Starlink Mobile's planned US terrestrial 5G network. Deployment begins in 2027, and MarketBeat says most of that revenue arrives in fiscal 2028.

Guidance and the stock

Q1 FY27 guidance Range
Revenue $10.4B–$11.2B
QCT $9.0B–$9.6B
QTL $1.3B–$1.5B
Non-GAAP EPS $2.15–$2.35

QUE.com says the EPS midpoint of $2.25 was slightly below the $2.27 analysts expected. It says the revenue range straddled the $10.48 billion consensus. It reports the shares fell about 7% in after-hours trading, on a day when the broader market rallied.

Qualcomm returned about $2 billion to shareholders in the quarter: $1.01 billion in buybacks and $987 million in dividends.

What to watch

  • December-quarter data center revenue. It is the first quarter with a real number. If it lands near the $650 million figure from the call, the $5 billion target becomes easier to believe.
  • Memory prices. As long as memory stays short, phone makers will keep building fewer high-end devices, and Qualcomm's largest business stays under pressure.
  • Margin mix. Custom data center silicon earns lower gross margins than Snapdragon phone chips. Watch whether operating margin holds up as that business grows.

Sources

  1. Qualcomm — Fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 results (earnings release PDF) s204.q4cdn.com
  2. Grafa — Qualcomm Q4 earnings beat estimates as auto sales jump 89% grafa.com
  3. MarketBeat — Qualcomm posts earnings results marketbeat.com
  4. QUE.com — Qualcomm slides 7% on a soft outlook as a memory squeeze hits phones que.com

#Qualcomm#earnings#Snapdragon#automotive#data center#smartphones#memory shortage